焦點對談 - 全球股票的未來超級趨勢？

Talking Heads podcast on global megatrends with Nadia Grant

Daniel Morris: Hello and welcome to the BNP Paribas Asset Management Talking Heads podcast. Every week, Talking Heads will bring you in-depth insights and analysis on the topics that really matter to investors. In this episode, we’ll be discussing the outlook for global equities. I’m Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, and I’m joined again today by Nadia Grant, Head of Global Equities. Welcome, Nadia, and thanks for joining me.

Nadia Grant: Hi Daniel.

DM: If we consider where we are today compared to where we thought we might be from the perspective of ‘Liberation Day’ and the big sell-off in the markets, we’d all agree we’re in a much happier place than we might have anticipated. Equities have had a good run since then. But always the question is what comes next? What kind of outlook do you see?

NG: We have a constructive outlook for 2026. When we think about corporates and consumers, they’re both in a healthy shape. They have strong balance sheets. The consumer is enjoying a high level of employment. There’s potential downside risk to the employment, but with the caveat that the labour supply is also tightening owing to two phenomenon. First, the boomers that are retiring and obviously also stricter immigration policies. So, that level of employment of high employment can continue. When we look at the other big components of GDP, strong investment, you’re having that big AI build-out and that is impacting the broader economy. It’s quite different from other capital spending that these large enterprises would have done in the past in that this time it’s quite intensive and it’s picks and shovels. You’re seeing construction activity picking up and being stimulated in the US, which is very positive for GDP growth. On the government side, fiscal policy is loose and that should be somewhat offset by the impact that we will feel on the tariff side. Overall, a benign picture.

What does it mean for companies and what does it mean for corporate earnings? The consensus is expecting double-digit earnings growth in the US in 2026. That’s a healthy backdrop. We’ve seen positive earnings per share (EPS) revisions, further helped by the weakness in the dollar helping specifically US exporters. The technology sector has been the main beneficiary of positive EPS revisions.

Finally, what should be an interesting highlight for 2026 is that similar to what we’ve been expecting this year, we should see that broadening of a sector contributing to the S&P earnings. When we think about this year, TMT – the technology, media and telecom sector – is 65% of the earnings of the S&P. What we’re expecting for next year is that contribution shrinking to 44% and all the other sectors contributing a lot more. That broadening should be a positive trigger for the S&P.

DM; Well, that does sound constructive. You’ve got a big universe of stocks and sectors to think about, and I imagine you need to go with your highest conviction views. What are some of the things that you have a high conviction in?

NG: We continue to believe that we’re in the midst of a defence super-cycle. So, we like exposure to defence names and that’s across the world. Obviously, we like some of the European players. Onshoring is also a theme that we continue to like. As mentioned, construction’s picking up in the US, but it’s not just a US theme, it’s also the German infrastructure plan. We like the beneficiaries of that plan in Europe, for example, companies exposed to construction sectors like the EU cement companies. EU financials we like. AI including China tech China AI is a thing that we continue to like. Likewise, electrification and the need for more power, the need to upgrade the transmission to allow for more renewable we like.

One that perhaps is more contrarian is we think that healthcare is worth paying more attention to. The sector is trading at depressed multiples… levels last seen since the Great Financial Crisis. That’s owing to policy uncertainty. When we look at the fundamentals, I would note that a lot of the companies have strong fundamentals, a strong growth profile and the policy uncertainty should not hit their growth outlook too materially. We like exposure to some of the large therapeutics that are benefiting from an ageing population like exposure to oncology, for example.

DM: I have to play devil’s advocate, if you’ll allow me. That all sounds fantastic. But we all know with equities you get volatility. There are risks. What I hear from clients is the B word, which I guess is better than the R word. We’re not so much worried about a recession these days, but the B word –  bubble- are we in a replay of what happened in the late 1990s and is 2000 around the corner?

NG: Yes, a lot of anxiety around that indeed. What we would say is that the large capital spending from the hyperscalers, that’s the hundreds of billions of dollars, has been by and large self-funded by their cash. These companies are extremely profitable. They are enjoying cash flow margins that are well in excess of those of the market. We’re thinking about an average of 16% cash flow margin for the Magnificent 7 companies versus 11% for the broader market, for the S&P 500. We’re watching attentively on the margin side, on the return side, but we’d that the OBBA – One Big Beautiful Bill Act – is actually a tailwind to cash flow. I would note that during the .com bubble, the companies that are in question did not have a free cash flow margin. Although there may be some froth in the market that bears watching, we  do not think that we are in a bubble area zone quite yet.

DM: One more challenge then. You touched on this, but maybe go into it more in depth on valuations, not only on some of the tech stocks in the US, but if you can on tech stocks in emerging markets or China, where valuations arguably have also moved up quite a bit.

NG: When we look at valuations, we can frame it in different ways. If I look at, say, the equity risk premium, it looks low versus levels we’ve seen more recently in history. When we look at longer-term averages, and if we look at those from the 1960s, 1970s onwards, we’re still below levels that we’ve seen historically, We’re still below, say, the 1980s level. It’s reflecting better earning visibility and that higher-quality companies make up the index. They’re far less cyclical. They have secular growth drivers. When we look as well at the return on equity, we can argue the market is not as extended versus history. So, you have higher quality, higher ROE – that warrants higher valuation.

When we look at valuation in Asia, we know that we’re still way below the historic peak. Those markets have done extremely well this year in particular. When we look at a 3–4-year view, the picture is very different.  I still have a lot of room for catching up there.

DM: If I could summarise some of your key points. Fundamentally, you have a constructive outlook for next year. If we look at balance sheets both for corporates and consumers in the US, they seem to be in healthy shape. That said, you’re looking for a broadening in the market gains from tech to other sectors of the economy. Key themes that you’re focused on besides AI, you see a defence super-cycle, renewable energy to power all the datacentres that are going to be built and a contrarian view, perhaps optimistic, on the outlook for healthcare. Finally for the risks in terms of a bubble in AI or evaluations, you acknowledge some froth in parts of the market that bears watching, but it does not seem to be that we’re in bubble territory.  Nadia, thank you very much for joining me.

NG: Thank you.

DM: If you would like more information about our capabilities in global equities, please reach out to your BNP Paribas Asset Management contact or check out Viewpoint, our website for investment insights at viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com. Viewpoint brings commentary and analysis in a variety of formats, from investment outlooks to asset allocation videos and podcasts, to help investors make better informed decisions. You’ve been listening to the BNP Paribas Asset Management Talking Heads podcast with me, Daniel Morris, and Nadia Grant, Head of Global Equities. Please do join me next week. Until then, take care.