焦點對談- 增長輪換的驅動因素

焦點對談- 成長的輪換驅動因素

Daniel Morris: Hello and welcome to the BNP Paribas Asset Management Talking Heads podcast. Every week, Talking Heads will bring you in-depth insights and analysis on the topics that really matter to investors. In this episode, we’ll be discussing the outlook for assets in 2026. I’m Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, and I’m joined by Ecaterina Bigos, CIO of Asia ex Japan. Welcome, Ecaterina, happy New Year and thanks for joining me.

Ecaterina Bigos: Glad to be here and happy New Year to the audience and to you, Daniel.

DM: We should start with an assessment of 2025. Broadly speaking, at least from an investment point of view, things went much better than expected. Quite strong returns for equity markets; fixed income actually as well didn’t do so badly. At the same time, we anticipate there will be more surprises in the year ahead. Nonetheless, we’ll attempt to think about how the markets might evolve, what investors should be looking for. From your point of view, what are the biggest opportunities and the risks?

EB: When we look at the opportunities and the risks in 2026, I would say those can be described in one sentence: rotating drivers of growth. Let me break that down. For the US, for instance, in 2026 and beyond, the ambition is to produce more of what it consumes. Or to put another way, reindustrialisation is the biggest opportunity. This largely is anchored around the AI tech opportunity:  reassuring a larger share of high-end manufacturing with low-end manufacturing by and large to be imported.

Now how does the US fare against that opportunity? A few aspects that I want to highlight. First, US economic growth in 2026 is expected to stay solid, supported by resilient consumption and increased investment. Healthy household balance sheets along with stable earned income to provide ongoing support. Notably, the strengths of the upper-income consumer with a positive wealth effect and a buffer from saving is expected to continue to drive resilience. The potential risk around that scenario is that consumption is vulnerable to a real income squeeze, particularly for the low-income cohort.

The other point I wanted to make is the durability of the AI capex expenditure. AI development is a structural theme, not just for the US, but globally. Private companies in the US have ambitions to deploy capex. The US national security goals provide a rationale for a continued strong commitment. Strong capex plans for hyperscale companies are expected to continue. What are the risks? Around that AI story, bottlenecks are building up. Some of the market participants have highlighted limitations around cheap manufacturing power and infrastructure. Another risk is disappointment or the lack of monetisation on the investment, which will be closely watched by market participants.

Let me highlight another one which is critical, particularly for the US: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to start to manifest in a corporate activity in 2026. It incentivises companies to drive investment and reshoring, which brings back some manufacturing activity.

Lastly, but not least important is the looser monetary policy and a dovish Federal Reserve bias, which provides additional support. Chair Powell leaned more dovish, emphasising downside risks to employment, characterised inflation excluding tariffs as close to 2%, and suggested policy rates are at the high end of the neutral range. What are the risks? We could see a surprise in inflation. Another risk is the rapid slowdown in the labour market. Recessionary cuts from the Fed is a risk to that growth story.

DM: If we go back to how the world looked in April 2025 after ‘Liberation Day’, one of the many surprises of last year has been how Europe has done despite the various internal and external shocks. European growth stayed resilient and European assets outperformed those in the US. What might you see in 2026?

EB: For Europe in 2026, and beyond, it is about addressing its competitiveness and its strategic autonomy that will ultimately drive the growth from new sources. Let me break it down. Europe over the past five years has increasingly lost market share in exports, primarily to China. If we look at innovation, Europe has lagged. Arguably, fragmentation of markets along with a fragmented regulatory landscape in the 27 member states is one of the biggest inhibitors. Now, Europe is acting. The German fiscal boost is a long-term positive for the European growth story. What we need to see is speed. The biggest risk is that policymakers are too slow to respond in bridging that innovation gap, in enhancing economic security and in deepening a single market in areas like capital, energy. and digital services.  

DM: We’ve covered the main developed markets. Of course, we can’t think about global risks without talking about China. Another big surprise, despite the significant tariffs really from the US on China, you’ve seen a meaningful increase in China exports and its trade surplus. What are your main observations?

EB: China in 2026 is the biggest opportunity, rotating to a more demand-based economy. Its trade-led model worked well in a globalised economy. Exports remained a key driver of growth in 2025, preserving its dominant market share despite the intensified trade tensions with the US.

However, with an increased ambition to protect the market at home, Chinese policymakers are faced with ongoing structural imbalances, cyclical headwinds. Weaker private sector and consumer confidence, along with demand-supply imbalances, are challenging corporate earnings outside the sectors of strategic focus.

Ultimately, reviving domestic demand is a key for sustained long-term growth. However, redirecting China towards a higher level of domestic consumption will take time. The property overhang needs to be addressed along with increased social welfare spending, along with job security, to unleash household savings.

For now, the strategy is to rely on investment and trade-led growth, emphasising the development of a modern industrial system and technological self-sufficiency. This approach is rooted in thinking that investment will create new jobs, drive income growth and by extension boost demand. Yet, the future economic and geopolitical developments along with policy implementation will be critical for China rebalancing towards a more demand economy.

DM; We’ve made our tour of the world now. If you account for everything that we’ve talked about, what are the implications that you see for asset classes and what are some of your convictions?

EB: The AI opportunity set is global, not just US. Supply chains, for instance, are largely in Asia. Leadership is likely to come from a broader set of players. The key ingredients for success and key aspects to watch is low cost and reliable energy sources, frontier AI development capabilities, data and expertise in curating that data, and increasing the trust in the guardrails. Volatility is going to be present in 2026 as it did in 2025. When valuations are built on aggressive future earnings expectations, anything that questions the growth path can lead to big share price swings.

The other story is the US market broadening: small and midcaps have more room to rerate in 2026. Leaner cost structures, pick-up [n] demand, improved earnings revisions, breadth along with AI-driven supply chain spillovers, and efficiency gains should support a broader market earnings upturn. Fed rate cuts, growth, a positive tax and regulatory policy add further tailwinds.

I’ve talked about Europe’s ambition to become more strategic and the need to successfully rotate towards strategic autonomy and competitiveness. Global financial conditions improving [and] improving global growth [are] a strong macro catalyst to allow for that rotation. The ECB is in a good place, ready to act if growth is being challenged. I want to end with [a] quotation from the European Commissioner of Financial Services, who said it’s time to turn resilience into competitiveness, prudence into progress and regulation into [an] incentive for growth.

I want to end this chapter of convictions with credit. In [the] absence of a recession, we could see spreads tighter, justifying allocations on a cross-asset basis. When we look at credit, we are constructive both on investment-grade and high-yield. The macro-outlook is supportive. The fundamentals for corporate borrowers are staying resilient. Arguably, valuations are expensive with spreads at tight levels, but not unreasonably so, accounting for the favourable growth backdrop and structurally high-quality issuers. What we need to watch is increased issuance in 2026, particularly from the US in investment-grade credit, related to rising capex spending by technology companies, but this is expected to be met by solid demand from yield buyers, not just in US, but also globally.

DM: Ecaterina, you summarised your outlook for 2026 in one phrase: rotating drivers of growth. That means, for example, in the US, reindustrialisation anchored by AI. AI is going to continue to be a key driver in Europe, so that the region goes beyond just resilience even with the challenges to address competitiveness and strategic autonomy. And in China, hopefully, a rotation from export-driven growth to a focus on domestic demand. And, broadly, a positive environment for risk assets, including equities and credit. Ecaterina, thank you very much for joining me.

EB: Thank you, Daniel.

DM: That’s it for this week’s episode of Talking Heads. If you would like more information about our asset management capabilities, please reach out to your contact or check out Viewpoint, our website for investment insights at viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com. We recommend subscribing to Talking Heads on your favourite podcast channel such as YouTube or Spotify. You’ll receive your podcast episodes every week. If you like Talking Heads, leave us a positive review and a nice rating. You’ve been listening to the BNP Paribas Asset Management Talking Heads podcast with me, Daniel Morris, and Ecaterina Bigos, CIO for Asia ex Japan. Please do join me next week. Until then, take care.