Key Insights
- The current second Covid-19 wave is hitting India hard with regional stress in the health care system and urgent lack of oxygen. However, the number of daily infections is declining noticeably in Mumbai and the vaccine program has already come a long way with an expected acceleration ahead. It is estimated that close to 40% of the population has become immune either through vaccination or development of antibodies after infection.
- The economic outlook in late 2020 was rather positive following the reopening of the economy after the first wave. However, as the current health crisis has exposed the inadequacies of the current healthcare system, politicians reckon that the long-term solution is to boost economic wealth to finance the needed healthcare programs. Therefore, the recent reform initiatives are very important.
Vaccines give hope despite second wave
India has been hit hard by the second Covid-19 wave with regional congestions in the health system. The worsened situation can be attributed to the authorities’ too optimistic assessment at the end of 2020 as well as the proliferation of a new virus – a more contagious double or triple mutation. Although the number of deaths is a human tragedy, the number measured in relation to the size of the population is still at the low-end compared to other countries.
The current situation is exacerbated by a severe shortage of oxygen, respirators and hospital capacity. The biggest challenges are concentrated in 8 states out of a total of 30 states. The problems are rooted in a poor infrastructure for transporting oxygen containers, where many hospitals, especially in northern India, are struggling to refill their oxygen bottles. One solution is a better utilization of the existing aircraft and railway infrastructure to help the distribution of oxygen and refilling of the empty containers. Finally, India is receiving international help in the form of increased imports of oxygen, respirators and production equipment.
