Despite the Iran conflict, we continue to see potential opportunities for ETF investors in European fixed income. Solid corporate fundamentals are supporting the credit sector, and we believe inflation-linked and short-duration bonds could perform well. The current backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions underscores the need for an active and flexible investment approach.
The Middle East conflict has created uncertainty over the economic and inflation outlook, posing new challenges for exchange traded fund investors looking to reposition their portfolio accordingly. However, we believe the current backdrop still offers potentially attractive opportunities for those looking to take a more active, selective approach.
The Iran conflict sent oil prices soaring, prompting central banks to warn of risks to inflation and growth. In March, the European Central Bank said the situation in Iran had “made the outlook significantly more uncertain” and opted to keep interest rates on hold.1
Higher inflation expectations and the possibility of tighter monetary policy over the coming months have together conspired to drive bond yields higher. But this can be positive for fixed income ETFs, offering investors a higher yield from their long-term investments, as well as the option to reinvest while prices are lower.
Credit remains supported
Europe is a diverse market consisting of countries with differing fiscal profiles, along with multiple market leaders across several sectors in the region and a plethora of multi-national companies based out of Europe.
In the region’s credit markets, some issuers will naturally be impacted more than others because of the geopolitical backdrop and associated energy price increases. Tighter credit spreads – the yield difference between corporate and traditionally less risky government bonds – are limiting the potential for higher returns in some areas. Despite this, the overall environment remains supportive for credit, with attractive yields and solid corporate fundamentals.
Inflation-linked bonds could benefit, as they can potentially help cushion against higher inflation. Meanwhile we believe that short-duration bonds – which are less sensitive to changes in interest rates – are more likely to perform well in this environment.
Increased bond issuance
Structural shifts such as technological advancements and a strategic focus on defence also highlight the potential investment opportunities across different sectors. For example, increased technology spending as artificial intelligence capabilities and infrastructure are developed means greater bond issuance is likely.
European corporate bonds also benefit from healthy balance sheets, earnings growth, and solid cash flows, as well as qualitative factors like strong management teams and competitive advantages.
European government bond issuance is also expected to increase, creating potential new opportunities for investors. Germany’s 2025 infrastructure and defence spending package is expected to see more than €500 billion of bond issuance this year.2
The additional fiscal spending is likely to boost growth prospects across Europe more broadly, supporting corporate fundamentals.
Meanwhile the European Commission is continuing to issue debt to fund initiatives like SAFE, its security and defence programme. This creates potential new opportunities for ETF investors to capture yield in longer-dated bonds.
An active approach is crucial
Europe is also attractive as a region for investors who are looking to diversify beyond the US amid policy-driven uncertainty.
European ETFs have enjoyed a record start to the year, in terms of inflows across both fixed income and equities. They enjoyed €93.5 billion of inflows in January and February, the strongest start to a year on record and surpassing the €91.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025, according to data provider Morningstar.3
Flows into bond strategies exceeded those going into equities in 2025 for the third consecutive year, it added. In our view, this is a testament to investor confidence in European markets amid an uncertain global geopolitical backdrop.
The range of potential opportunities on offer underscores the need for an active and flexible investment approach. Investors could also consider a so-called alpha enhanced approach – an active strategy aiming to outperform a benchmark, albeit while targeting a lower level of risk level.
Alpha enhanced strategies often use a factor investing approach, which involves classifying companies into certain styles – the most common being quality, value, low-risk and momentum. This aims to help investors identify bonds issued by companies with strong fundamentals, and when coupled with an alpha enhanced approach, could potentially help ETF investors aim to achieve benchmark-beating returns with lower risk levels.
With strong fundamentals, structural shifts and ongoing policy-driven debt issuance, we believe there remain a plethora of opportunities in European fixed income ETFs. But against an uncertain and sometimes unsettled market backdrop, with questions over the path of monetary policy, inflation and growth, a flexible approach is essential, and ETFs remain potentially ideal tools to achieve flexibility.
[2] Germany’s debt issuance plan unchanged for Q2, says finance agency
[3] Europe Fund Flows: ETFs Start 2026 With Record-Breaking Inflows | Morningstar
