What lessons can we draw from the past about how different asset classes perform during a Fed rate cutting cycle?
Following the 50bp cut in policy rates from the US Federal Reserve on 18 September, much analysis has looked at how different asset classes perform during a Fed cutting cycle. Unfortunately, most of this analysis is simplistic, merely taking the average of returns over the different cycles.
There is, however, significant variation between the different episodes. Given that the Fed was cutting rates in each of them, there has to be another factor which explains the variation. That factor is the economic cycle. In four out of the five episodes a recession ensued. Even in those instances, there were differences in when the recession arrived, from two months following the first cut to 13.
The returns when the recession arrived quickly were very different from when the recession arrived later or not at all. We anticipate a soft landing, so investors may wish to consider the returns in the 1984, 1989 and 2019 as providing better guidance on the US outlook.
Disclaimer
This material is issued and has been prepared by BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT UK Limited (“BNPPAM UK”). Registered in England No: 02474627, registered office: 5 Aldermanbury Square, London, England, EC2V 7BP, United Kingdom. BNPPAM UK is regulated by the FCA under UK laws, which differ from Australian laws. In Australia, BNPPAM UK is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services. This material is distributed in Australia by BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT Australia Limited ABN 78 008 576 449, AFSL 223418. This material is produced for information purposes only and does not constitute:
an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever or
investment advice.
Opinions included in this material constitute the judgement of BNPP AMAU at the time specified and may be subject to change without notice. BNPP AMAU is not obliged to update or alter the information or opinions contained within this material. Investors should consult their own legal and tax advisors in respect of legal, accounting, domicile and tax advice prior to investing in the financial instrument(s) in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment therein, if permitted. Please note that different types of investments, if contained within this material, involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment may either be suitable, appropriate or profitable for an investor’s investment portfolio.
Given the economic and market risks, there can be no assurance that the financial instrument(s) will achieve its/their investment objectives. Returns may be affected by, amongst other things, investment strategies or objectives of the financial instrument(s) and material market and economic conditions, including interest rates, market terms and general market conditions. The different strategies applied to the financial instruments may have a significant effect on the results portrayed in this material. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of the investments in financial instrument(s) may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back the amount they originally invested. The performance date, as applicable, reflected in this material, does not take into account the commissions, costs incurred on the issue and redemption and taxes. All information referred to in the present material is available on www.bnpparibas-am.com.
