The results of the first round of parliamentary elections held in France on 30 June were broadly in line with the opinion polls’ forecasts: voters placed the rightwing National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) in the lead, followed by the leftwing New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire, NFP) and finally ‘Together’, the coalition of centrist parties (Ensemble pour la République).
Due to a high turnout (66.7% compared to 47.5% in 2022), the second round on 7 July is expected to feature many three-way ‘triangular’ contests between candidates who have qualified on the basis of their first-round results.
Over the next few days, we should have a clearer picture once the parties have announced in which constituencies their candidates will compete (the deadline for submission of lists for the second round is the evening of 2 July). There is, of course, no guarantee that voters will heed any tactical voting advice coming from the parties.
The initial reaction of financial markets to the first-round results was typical of what happens when markets are faced with an outcome matching the expectations at a time of high uncertainty: there is a sort of relief. Eurozone equities rose at the market opening, the interest rate spread between France and Germany narrowed slightly (compared to Friday’s high above 80bp) and the euro rose versus the US dollar.
If you have questions on the forthcoming parliamentary elections in France or require further information, please contact your client relationship manager.
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